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Cover image of The Science of Conjecture
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The Science of Conjecture

Evidence and Probability before Pascal

James Franklin

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How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates.

The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and...

How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates.

The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.

Reviews

Reviews

A remarkable book. Mr. Franklin writes clearly and exhibits a wry wit. But he also ranges knowledgeably across many disciplines and over many centuries.

The Science of Conjecture opens an old chest of human attempts to draw order from havoc and wipes clean the rust from some cast-off classical tools that can now be reused to help build a framework for the unpredictable future.

Franklin's style is clear and fluent, with an occasional sly Gibbonian aside to make the reader chuckle.

An admirably accessible study written in a crisp prose. It presents the reader with anarching historical perspective throughout many a century of human action.

Franklin gives a magisterial account of matters as diverse as the Talmud, Justinian's Digest, torture, witch hunts, Tudor treason trials, ancient and medieval astronomy and physics, humanist historiography, scholastic philosophy, speculations in public debt, and 17th century mathematics. His treatment of medieval law is among the best I have ever read.

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Table of Contents

Preface
Chapter 1: The Ancient Law of Proof
Chapter 2: The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof, and the Inquisition
Chapter 3: Renaissance Law
Chapter 4: The Doubting Conscience and Moral

Preface
Chapter 1: The Ancient Law of Proof
Chapter 2: The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof, and the Inquisition
Chapter 3: Renaissance Law
Chapter 4: The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty
Chapter 5: Rhetoric, Logic, Theory
Chapter 6: Hard Science
Chapter 7: Soft Science and History
Chapter 8: Philosophy: Action and Induction
Chapter 9: Religion: Laws of God, Laws of Nature
Chapter 10: Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities, and Bets
Chapter 11: Dice
Chapter 12: Conclusion
Epilogue: The Survival of Unquantified Probability

Author Bio
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James Franklin

James Franklin is a professor in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New South Wales.